It’s March, the reigning Cy Young is still a free agent, and other thoughts on WHY BASEBALL IS BROKEN
Spring Training has been underway for about a week, and Snell, Montgomery, and Chapman are still not signed by teams. Bellinger just recently signed, for a 3-yr, ~$80M deal, with opt-outs after each year. Which is… a lot less than people expected… What happened to the classic, 5-yr for $110 or something similar? w/e, I don’t want to get too much in the weeds on that, but the real point is that something really weird is going on in baseball. It feels like only the Yankees, Dodgers, and Braves are trying, b/c they have some serious “F You” money and a “why the hell not?” attitude. Other than that, it seems like teams are just fine being OK, and hoping they make the playoffs when a break or two goes their way.
I think this new playoff formula really fucked the sport. I think other teams are looking at the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, for vastly different reasons, and going, “why do I need to spend gazillions of dollars to have a competitive team?”. I’m one Corbin Carroll away from having a breakout year and making the world series. On the flip side, look at the Dodgers! They have studs all over the roster. Multiple MVPs. The greatest pitcher in a generation as their #3 starter, and STILL didn’t even MAKE the World Series. If they cant do it with that team, why should I try? With the playoff field now open to 6 teams from each league, a mediocre team has a GREAT chance at making the playoffs, and once you’re in, anything can happen.
Baseball’s playoffs have the most out of sync regular-season-to-playoffs-structure. What I mean by that is, more than any other sport, any team can win a single baseball game. There is so much variance. Like, the Royals of last year could beat the dodgers in any single game. But, over a whole season, the cream rises to the top. That’s why in baseball they play 162 games, more than any other sport. So why then is the 1st round of the playoffs a best of 3 series?! Hey ChatGPT, how many times did a “worse team” (by overall record) win a 3-game series over a better team? I don’t know the answer, but I bet it’s a lot. Also, if you lose the 1st two games, your done. Meaning, you could have played 162 games, to then play 2 games and be out. That would be equivalent to the wild card round in the NFL lasting 1/5 of a whole game! Not even a full quarter! Think about that. Imagine playing 13 minutes of a football game, FOR THE PLAYOFFS, and then the league being like, WELP, THAT’S IT, the ahead team moves on! That’s insanity.
So, if I’m an owner with a middle of the pack team, why would I go balls to walls trying to assemble a great team? What I would do, is try to get 2–3 great starting pitches, and hitters that are good enough have a fighting chance, and then roll the dice with the year. At best, I sneak into the playoffs and win a few rounds (like the Diamondbacks). At worst, I’m mediocre, but entertaining enough all year to be “in the hunt”, keep my fans “engaged” (or, so I think), save some serious cash, and call it a great, entertaining, year! But, the reality, is so, so unsatisfying for fans. Gone are the long term contracts for above-average franchise cornerstones, like a Bellinger. Dude just hit above .300 with a 25–20 HR-SB year, while playing premium defense, and essentially got 3 one-year deals. WHAT. 10 years ago, that guy is getting a long-term deal, fans are buying his jersey b/c they know he’ll be there for at least the next 5 years, and you have a guy you can grow with and love and expect to watch every day all summerlong for the foreseeable future.
That’s baseball. Consistency. Now, it’s all these short 1 to 3 year deals by teams a coin flip away from the playoffs, all doing the same thing. Hey, maybe OUR dude has a great year, and we’re the ’21 Giants. Or, maybe guys on the other team get hurt (god forbid!), and they fall out of the race. Whatever. You don’t have to be GOOD good to make the playoffs. And that’s the rub. Baseball is now rewarding mediocrity (after all, it’s just a hunk of metal). And everyone pays.
